Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
